Most punters like to wager on top flight football especially the English Premier League (EPL). Millions of dollars are wagered on every match.
Why is there the tendency to focus on elite football?
Because the punters believe they have better knowledge and thus greater confidence. They like the winning consistency of the big clubs. However, the odds for such consistent winners are often low and without value.
It can pay dividends to concentrate on the lower leagues. Let me share with you an interesting incident. On 21st Feb. 2009, there was a match between English non-league side Weymouth and Rushden & Diamonds. Weymouth was trashed 9-0. But Weymouth fans laughed all the way to the bank. The bookmakers paid out more than one million English Pounds in one of the biggest betting coups in non-league history.
What went wrong for the bookmakers?
In the lower leagues, the punters have an edge if they are able to obtain the latest team news faster than the bookmakers. In this incident, Weymouth fans found out "before the bookmakers" that Weymouth's first team, which had not been paid at all this year because of the club's debts, went on strike after discovering that there was no medical insurance for the game. The club had no choice but to field its inexperienced youth team. In this match, the bookmakers were caught with their pants down.
Those punters who are prepared to spend the same amount of time applying the same research criteria in the lower divisions can profit immensely. The following four reasons will convince you :
1) Smaller Squad
Most lower division teams do not have huge squads and cannot replace their star players easily with players of the same quality. Injury or suspension of certain key players can upset the performance of the whole team.
2) No Powerhouses
Unlike the elite league like EPL, for the lower divisions, there are no powerhouses who dominate the league for multiple seasons. There are no so-called Big Four. This gives the lower leagues a more level playing field and creates more opportunities for value betting.
3) Better Odds
Manchester United is the reigning EPL champion and the odds for any of its Home games are hardly worth making a bet. However, the equivalent leading league favourite in a lower division could get as much as three times the odds with an almost equal probability chance of winning. During the season, lots of such instances will crop up which the punters can capitalise on.
4) Same Punting Options
With the growth of online betting, lower division football now has the same type of markets and punting options as the top tier football. However, the bookmakers tend to dedicate most of their time on the top flight leagues. For the lower divisions, there is a tendency for them to make more mistakes when setting the prices. There is value to be spotted.
Conclusion
Betting on the lower leagues is an area waiting to be exploited. If the punter is diligent in doing his homework, it is not difficult to acquire a betting edge. The above incident is a classic example. So, it all depends on :
* How knowledgeable you are OR
* How misinformed the bookmakers/public opinions are
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